CLIMATE ADVISORY No. 5 (La Niña)
Issued on 06 January 2021
MONTHLY CLIMATE ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOK FOR MINDANAO
Majority of the climate models suggest a continuation of La Niña conditions until January-February-March 2021 season, with 95% probability. It has an increasing chance of returning to ENSO neutral during April-May-June 2021 season, with 50% probability. There is yet an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall during January-February-March 2021 season that can lead to potential adverse impacts including flooding in low-lying areas, rain-induced landslides and overflowing of rivers over vulnerable areas, with varying magnitude. All concerned agencies are still advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate these hydrometeorological hazards.
Seasonal Climate Outlook for January to June 2021
Weather systems that will likely affect Mindanao during the period include Tropical Cyclones, Low Pressure Areas (LPAs), Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Northeast Monsoon, Easterlies, Tail-end of Frontal System (shearline), localized thunderstorms, transition from Northeast Monsoon to Southwest Monsoon (May-June).
PAGASA CAD-CLIMPS rainfall forecast suggests that most areas in Mindanao is likely to receive above normal rainfall for January-February-March (JFM) 2021 season; while near normal rainfall is expected for April-May-June (AMJ) 2021 season. These rainfall forecasts are notably in agreement with majority of the seasonal climate forecasts from various international climate models and multi-model ensembles.
MPRSD will continue to closely monitor the ongoing La Niña, which could influence development of extreme weather conditions that can adversely affect Mindanao islands. Updates shall be issued as appropriate. All concerned Government Units and institutions including non-government organizations and the general public are advised to take appropriate actions concerning this current climate conditions and keep monitoring for updates.